The global energy system is under unprecedented pressure.

Population increases, economic growth, and expanding energy demand continue to make the world's energy supply dependent on fossil fuels.

According to a recent report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), to curb global warming, net emissions from human activities need to be reduced to zero by 2050.

However, in the last year, global carbon dioxide emissions have risen to their highest level ever. In addition, the changing world landscape has slowed the transition to an inclusive, sustainable, affordable, and secure energy system. This is a reminder of the perilous position we are in if we continue to operate development as business as usual. As a result, the scientific journal Nature has proposed four scenarios for the future of energy development.

1. Green New Deal

In this scenario, there is global agreement that we should act quickly to combat climate change. "The Green Climate Fund (GCF) aims to promote the transition from fossil fuels to low-carbon energy sources. By 2030, green tech companies dominate. The world's communication situation is no longer tense, as all countries enjoy the benefits of decarbonization, and those with large oil and gas industries can make a smooth and sustainable energy transition.

2. Technological breakthroughs

In this scenario, countries are tense. The world is divided into two camps following a major technological breakthrough. Renewable energy does have the potential to mitigate climate change and replace fossil fuels, and there is a lot of competition among countries for renewable energy. But some regions are losing the race and are being left out of the new technology altogether.

3. Nationalism

This is, without a doubt, the worst-case scenario. The decarbonization process has been slowed down by the adoption of "national-first" policies by countries around the world, which rely on their capacity to produce energy from fossil fuels and the like. Differences among countries have weakened the influence of international organizations and rendered the Paris Climate Change Agreement ineffective. Increased global warming has led to conflicts between countries over shared resources.

4. Business as usual

In this business-as-usual development scenario, fossil fuels continue to dominate and the energy transition is too slow to effectively address climate change. "To minimize conflict and maximize equity, the choices that countries make over the next decade will be critical," write study authors Andreas Goldthau, Kirsten Westphal, and others in Nature.